Bitcoin plunged as much as 8.06% on Monday. Bitcoin hit a low of 83824.31 at 10:43 ET.
The cryptocurrency tumble on Monday dragged Fangs and trading sardines sharply lower. This weighed on the general equity market.
@infraa_: SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) now 12bps above the Fed's upper bound. Third consecutive day above the Discount Window/SRF rate https://x.com/infraa_/status/1995479277916045589
The ‘natural rate of interest,’ or perhaps more appropriately the ‘equilibrium rate of interest,’ is higher than the Fed Funds Rate – and some Fed officials and the silly POTUS want to lower it substantially!
November S&P Global US Mfg. PMI 52.2, 51.9 expected and prior
November US ISM Mfg. 48.2, 49 expected, 48.7 prior
Price Paid: 58.5m 57.5 expected, 58 prior
New Orders: 47.4, prior 49.4
Employment: 44.0, prior 46
US Factory Activity Shrinks by the Most in Four Months – BBG
US factory activity shrank in November by the most in four months as orders weakened, indicating manufacturers are struggling to break free from an extended period of malaise…
“Demand and production retreated and destaffing continued, as panelists’ companies responded to an unknown economic environment,” Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said in a statement. “Prices growth accelerated slightly due to tariffs, causing new order placement backlogs, supplier delivery slowdowns and manufacturing inventory growth.”
Weak orders, slower production and declining backlogs help explain a third straight month of decreasing manufacturing employment…
Despite the ugly US ISM for November, US bonds got hammered on Monday. Japan’s continuing bond market train wreck is a factor. USZs sank as much as 1 9/32. The US 10-year hit 4.092%. If the 10-year hit 4.2% or higher, look out! Perhaps Mr. Bond is very unhappy that the Fed will cut rates!
Treasuries fall as new corporate debt follows Japan bond selloff
Treasuries fell as US trading… with a surge of new corporate bond supply to begin the last month of the year. Yields rose to session highs during US morning — led by long-maturity tenors — after Merck & Co. slated an eight-part bond offering that includes 20-, 30- and 40-year tranches. Government bonds globally were already under pressure as Japan’s 10-year yield jumped to the highest level since 2008 on the prospect of a Bank of Japan interest-rate hike later this month…
AI Bond Deluge Pushes Some Investors to Seek Shelter in MBS – BBG
Overall US investment-grade issuance will probably top $800 billion in 2026, stripping out refinancings, a net increase of about 54% from this year… A chunk of those sales will come from tech companies investing in artificial intelligence infrastructure…
Disney Seeks Energy Trader as Big Firms Try to Curb Power Costs – BBG
The successful candidate will buy power on an hourly and daily basis, secure favorable pricing and help keep… tourism destinations reliable powered… Trend is particularly pronounced among major tech companies such as Meta… Microsoft… and Alphabet, which are racing to secure enough electricity to meet soaring demand driven by their rapidly expanding AI operations…
A HUGE downside to massive AI data centers and crypto mining is their monstrous electricity use, which drives electricity costs (inflation) higher, and strains the US’s decrepit power grid.
ESZs traded a tad higher during the first 25 minutes of Nikkei trading. After 20:28 ET, ESZs commenced an intractable decline that took ESZs to a daily low of 6802.00 at 0:35 ET. ESZs rallied to 6829.50 at 4:05 ET. After a long retrenchment to 6805.00 at 7:06 ET, the inculcated rally for the NYSE opening began. ESZs ran to 6844.25 at 9:55 ET. The pro dump pushed ESZs down to 6813.75 at 10:34 ET.
The second hour reversal plus buying for the expected late rally on start of December buying near or at the NYSE close lifted ESZs to 6850.75 at 12:07 ET. Yes, Virgina, despite the bond market carnage, the usual suspects eagerly bought stocks, particularly trading sardines, due to classical conditioning. Because ‘stocks always get it last,’ stocks are subject to frightening declines when a critical mass ‘gets it.’
ESZs relentlessly marched higher, hitting 6855.75 at 13:52 ET. Aggressive selling appeared; ESZs sank to 6823.75 at 14:33 ET. After a modest rebound, ESZs traded in a small range until they broke lower at 15:51 ET. ESZs fell to 6819.25 at 15:57 ET; the late manipulation pushed them to 6829.50 at 16:00 ET.
Fed Flags Potential Risks Tied to Office Space, Capital Planning – BBG
Federal Reserve bank supervisions are monitoring community and regional banks’ commercial real estate portfolios amid concerns over “elevated interest rates, tighter underwriting standards, and lower commercial property values,” the agency said….
Black Friday shoppers are relying on Buy Now, Pay Later plans. Here's how that could backfire
Between November 1 and December 31, Adobe estimates that American shoppers will spend more than $20 billion online through BNPL plans, an 11% increase from 2024. "This is roughly $2 billion more than the 2024 holiday season, when BNPL drove $18.2 billion in online spend," the company said. " BNPL usage on Cyber Monday is expected to hit a new milestone and cross $1 billion ($1.04 billion, up 5% YoY)."… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/black-friday-shoppers-relying-buy-050805133.html
Northeast set to be blasted by ‘most extreme cold on Earth’ before Christmas https://trib.al/skHrwSX
Positive aspects of previous session
The DJTA rallied sharply on the valuation rotation.
Fangs recovered robust from early carnage.
Negative aspects of previous session
Commodities rallied sharply; oil and gasoline soared. Natural gas hit a 3-year high on above cold front.
Spot silver hit $59! Bonds got hammered; crypto got eviscerated.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Are commodities and Mr. Bond issuing an inflation warning to the Fed?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6818.75
Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6843.65; 6799.94
Recent college grads are losing their edge in the job market, study shows
The Cleveland Fed economists found that the unemployment gap has continually declined since the 2008 financial crisis and recently reached its lowest level since the late 1970s. They also found that the decline has been accompanied by a decline in the job-finding rate – the fraction of the unemployed who find a job on a monthly basis – for young college graduates starting around 2000…
However, high school graduates remain at a disadvantage compared with their college graduate peers in terms of job retention and compensation…
The Cleveland Fed economists noted that if these trends continue, they could upend the way young Americans view the value of investing in a college degree…
https://www.aol.com/finance/recent-college-grads-losing-edge-180738580.html
@AndrewKolvet: Dem Sen. Mark Kelly is now basically threatening servicemembers to defy President Trump's orders, or else face potential prosecutions when Democrats are back in power. This is seeding the ground for a Third World style military seizure of civil authority.
https://x.com/AndrewKolvet/status/1995501072614617372
Office of Congressman Abe Hamadeh @RepAbeHamadeh: The reason Democrats refuse to name what they consider to be illegal orders by President Trump is that they want our military and intelligence community to question EVERY order they receive from this administration. The ambiguity 𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒑𝒐𝒊𝒏𝒕. They want to make our active-duty personnel hesitate to execute the agenda voted for by the American people, paralyzing these men and women with the threat of future punishment.
Dems have spent the past few years trying to delegitimize the SCOTUS and Trump. Now, they are opening calling for a military coup. How come so few people realize or are alarmed by the implications of what Dems have been doing?
@WarlordDilley: My guess is that whatever else Mark Kelly is involved with is far worse than violating the USMCJ, so he's going all out trying to compel a military coup.
Team Trump is investigating and prosecuting the Deep State. Perhaps the Deep State, fighting for its survival and trying to avoid jail, will do whatever is necessary. Also, if reports are correct and Team Trump has the evidence that the 2020 Election was rigged and they halted another rig in 2024, ‘they’ must do what is necessary to avoid what reporting is coming.
NB: Trump has voided ALL Biden’s autopen orders. Obviously, this act will now be adjudicated by the SCOTUS. The consequences of voiding some, most, or all of Biden’s autopen orders is enormous!
Is Mark Kelly leading the Trump Mutiny to procure the Dem POTUS nomination in 2028?
(Apple AI chief) John Giannandrea to retire from Apple (Apple’s AI operation has had issues.)
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251201260097/en/John-Giannandrea-to-retire-from-Apple
Today – Traders want to affect a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside. Bitcoin and Japanese bonds should continue to be a factor. The S&P 500 Index low on Monday was 6799.94, which is now key support.
ESZs are +3.50; NQZs are +36.50; Dec AU is -38.70; and USZs are +3/32 at 20:10 ET.
Expected economic data: Nov S&P Global US Mfg. PMI 51.9; Nov ISM Mfg. 49, Prices Paid 57.5
S&P Index 50-day MA: 6728; 100-day MA: 6575; 150-day MA: 6366; 200-day MA: 6180
DJIA 50-day MA: 46,773; 100-day MA: 45,865; 150-day MA: 44,756; 200-day MA: 43,963
(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (6812.63 close) - BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5799.20 triggers a sell signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6420.50 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6647.57 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6842.225 triggers a buy signal
Experts say top FDA official’s claim that Covid vaccines caused kids’ deaths requires more evidence- Vinay Prasad ties 10 deaths to the shots, calls for stricter vaccine regulation, in leaked memo
The Food and Drug Administration’s top vaccine regulator asserted in an email to staff sent Friday that the Covid-19 vaccine caused at least 10 deaths in children and called for changes to the way the agency regulates vaccines…“This is a profound revelation,” Prasad wrote in the memo…
https://www.statnews.com/2025/11/29/covid-vaccine-deaths-fda-memo-vinay-prasad/
@AlexBerenson: I am going to keep screaming this until someone hears: A CHILD DIED IN MODERNA'S OWN CLINICAL TRIAL OF ITS MRNA COVID JAB, AND THE COMPANY HID THE DEATH FROM THE PUBLIC… https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1995150582492107255?s=02
Damning report labels FBI ‘rudderless ship’ under Kash Patel — with him and Dan Bongino more concerned with building ‘personal résumés’
A troubling new report card on the first six months of Patel’s leadership concludes he is “in over his head” and his deputy, Dan Bongino, is “something of a clown,” according to the alliance, which in two previous reports warned about crippling DEI and politicization of the FBI during the Biden administration… Both he and Bongino were criticized for “arrogance” and an “unfortunate obsession with social media.”…
There is good news for Patel in the report card. The rollback of DEI policies under him is welcomed by multiple sources who say it has reduced the “administrative burden.”…
Minnesota Department of Human Service Employees @Minnesota_DHS: Tim Walz is 100% responsible for massive fraud in Minnesota. We let Tim Walz know of fraud early on, hoping for a partnership in stopping fraud but no, we got the opposite response. Tim Walz systematically retaliated against whistleblowers using monitoring, threats, repression, and did his best to discredit fraud reports. Instead of partnership, we got the full weight of retaliation by Tim Walz, certain DFL members and an indifferent mainstream media. It’s scary, isolating and left us wondering who we can turn to.
In addition to retaliating against whistleblower, Tim Walz disempowered the Office of the Legislative Auditor, allowing agencies to disregard their audit findings and guidance. Media and politicians supporting Tim Walz or the DFL-agenda attacked whistleblowers who were trying to raise red flags on fraudulent activities… As staff, we firsthand witnessed and observed fraud happening yet we were shutdown, reassigned and told to keep quiet. Sometimes more…
Fundamentally, Tim Walz is dishonest, lacks ethics and integrity, has poor leadership abilities, and has never taken any accountability for his role in fraud. Instead, Tim Walz deflects by blaming national politics for his own failings and distracts the public with inveterate lying…
Thank You NY Times for bringing the plight of Minnesota to the national stage.
https://x.com/Minnesota_DHS/status/1994993895428461006
NYT: How Fraud Swamped Minnesota’s Social Services System on Tim Walz’s Watch
Prosecutors say members of the Somali diaspora, a group with growing political power, were largely responsible. President Trump has drawn national attention to the scandal amid his crackdown on immigration. The fraud scandal that rattled Minnesota was staggering in its scale and brazenness…
Outrage has swelled among Minnesotans, and fraud has turned into a potent political issue in a competitive campaign season. Gov. Tim Walz and fellow Democrats are being asked to explain how so much money was stolen on their watch…
The episode has raised broader questions for some residents about the sustainability of Minnesota’s Scandinavian-modeled system of robust safety net programs bankrolled by high taxes. That system helped create an environment that drew immigrants to the state over many decades, including tens of thousands of Somali refugees after their country descended into civil war in the 1990s…
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/29/us/fraud-minnesota-somali.html
@bungarsargon: A group of Minnesota Somalis stealing tens of millions of dollars from American taxpayers told Minnesota's Dept. of Ed to pay up for their fake charity or they would call them racist in the media—and it worked. This whole story is utterly repulsive from start to finish.
https://x.com/bungarsargon/status/1995266087236272608
@MikeBenzCyber: So the Somalis threatened the local government agency they would call it racist if it didn’t give tens of millions of dollars of taxpayer money to their NGO scam, and the agency bent to the pressure afraid of being called racist if they didn’t fund fraud.